An unprecedented rush to put satellites into low Earth orbit is colliding with shortages of specialized components and materials, SpaceNews reported. Amazon wants more than 5,000 satellites in orbit, Blue Origin has proposed another 5,400, Chinese companies have filed plans for vastly more, and Elon Musk has talked about a constellation numbering 1 million; analysts say the roughly 19,000 satellites now in low Earth orbit could be joined by 70,000 more in the next few years.
A joint analysis by the Aerospace Industries Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers, based on conversations with about 30 industry professionals, identified nine critical components contributing to the squeeze, ranging from valves and actuators to switchgears and transformers. "Companies right now are just looking at where they might be able to take additional risk," said Steve Jordan Tomasweski, the AIA's vice president of space systems, adding that some are willing to downgrade to non-space-qualified parts or wait a year for certain valves.
Carla Filotico, partner and managing director at consulting firm Novaspace, said she is particularly concerned about gallium nitride and germanium, two minerals used in high-efficiency solar cells, since China controls around 98% of gallium nitride production. A single megaconstellation can require 10,000 to 20,000 solar panels, she said, because satellites must be replenished every four or five years depending on orbital height. Filotico expects the resource squeeze to peak over the next five years as the new constellation launch wave hits its planned peak by 2030.
Even aluminum, generally considered abundant, has grown scarcer and costlier amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, according to Doug Anderson, a partner at PwC who worked on the AIA report. "The Strait of Hormuz has impacted aluminum, has impacted helium. These are things that are very important for the space supply chain," he said. Analysts told SpaceNews the mounting pressure could force delays, push some companies out of the market, or trigger greater industry consolidation.